Wednesday, October 6, 2010

NFL Quarterly Review...

So I kind of pulled a "Matt Hasselback" with my picks last week:

I guaranteed a great week of picks, encouraging all my readers to parlay every Week 4 game in line with my picks. It didn't quite work out. I went 7-9 again. It's safe to say I'm a little embarrassed. Since my Week 1 picks (11-5), I'm 22-24. I've been two games below .500 two of the last three weeks. That's unacceptable. I wouldn't even make the playoffs with that record. Unless I played in the NFC West. I'm a couple bad weeks away from tarnishing my reputation as a picks guru. If there's ever a time to take a step back and think things through, it's right now.

Taking a look at the standard deviation of my picks (I can do that stuff cause I'm an accounting guy), one outlier sticks out the most. The 49ers and Bears are killing me! Between those two teams, I'm 0-8. No matter what I pick, I get it wrong. I'm starting to realize that's because I keep picking the 49ers to win, and let's face it, it seems to be their mission to be the most underachieving team in NFL history. Take their games out of my picks and I'm 41-21 instead of 33-29. So I think the best hope for my picks right now, would be for me to never pick the Niners again. Then I'll just pick the opposite of what I expect to happen in the Bears game. Kind of like I do each March for the Clemson first round match-up in my bracket. No matter what, for the rest of my life, I'm picking Clemson to lose in the first round. A southern, die-hard Clemson fan named Brint once told me that Clemson is incapable of winning big games. He made me realize that in life, only a few things are certain: Life, death, taxes and Clemson first-round March Madness losses. I've gone against my gut twice in the last two years and picked against Clemson. And I'm 2-0. Thanks Brint. Sorry Clemson still sucks. So if I treat San Fran and Chicago like Clemson - Bam! A four point swing every week.

So now that I think I solved the problem, it's time to get to my quarterly review. Like I said, I'm an accounting guy, I'm entitled to do things like quarterly reviews.

My AFC Playoff Predictions:
AFC East: New England Patriots (11-5)
Actual Record: (3-1); Record to be a match: (8-4)
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
Actual Record: (3-1); Record to be a match: (9-3)
AFC South: Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Actual Record: (2-2); Record to be a match: (10-2)
AFC West: San Diego Chargers (11-5)
Actual Record: (2-2); Record to be a match: (9-3)
Wildcards: Houston Texans (10-6), Actual Record (3-1), Match: (7-5); Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6), Actual Record (3-1), Match: (7-5)

Serious threats to my parade: Kansas City Chiefs (3-0), New York Jets (3-1); Long-shot threat: Denver Broncos (2-2)

Some things to note:
1) I had the Chiefs slated in at a (5-11) finish. That means they only need to go (2-11) here on out for me to be right. So you're sayyyyyyyingggggg there's a chance. I said I was only 95% confident my predictions were perfect, alright!?
2) Randy Moss no longer plays for the Patriots. Mark Sanchez answered my call out and got serious about being a good quarterback. The Jets offense looks better than their defense and they add Santonio Holmes and Darrelle Revis back this week. Things are looking good for my AFC East prediction. S#!%
3) If there's ever a team that can finish 10-2 to end the season, it's the Indianapolis Colts. Hey Kansas City. Remember the first time the Colts lost this season, and a pissed off Peyton Manning led them to a route over the Giants? Good luck preserving that undefeated season? To quote Matt Silver of Yahoo! Sports: "Should the '72 Dolphins just pop the champagne already, or does this team have a shot in Indy against the ticked-off Colts?"
4) My surprise Wild Card pick of the Steelers might not have been ambitious enough. Big Ben isn't even back yet, and this team already looks geared for their third Super Bowl in six years. Resist the young girls Ben! Think of it like a museum. Do not touch the work of art.
5) Don't look back Houston! Give the ball to Foster. Throw it up to Johnson. Improve your defense. You can do this!
6) Michael Silver is getting a lot of love today. Here's another quote that sums up the San Diego Chargers: "If a team has the league's No. 1 offense and defense four games into the season, how much does it half to screw up to go 2-2?" I'll take "Cut Everyone Associated With Your Special Teams" for $500 Alex.

My NFC Playoff Predictions:
NFC East: Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
Actual Record (1-2); Record to be a match: (11-3)
NFC North: Green Bay Packers (12-4)
Actual Record: (3-1); Record to be a match: (9-3)
NFC South: New Orleans Saints (12-4)
Actual Record: (3-1); Record to be a match: (9-3)
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers (11-5)
Actual Record: I'd rather not say. No seriously, come on, I don't wanna say it. (0-4); Record to be a match: (11-1)
Wild Cards: Minnesota Vikings (10-6), Actual Record (1-2), Match: (9-4); New York Giants (10-6), Actual Record (2-2), Match: (8-4)

Serious threats on my parade: Atlanta Falcons (3-1), Chicago Bears (3-1), Philadelphia Eagles (2-2), Washington Redskins (2-2), all of the NFC West; Long-shot threat: Tampa Bay (2-1)

Some things to note:
1) When I originally made my predictions, the Falcons were mathematically ahead of both the Vikings and Giants. Because I'm a Giants fan, I added a loss to the Falcons record and bumped the G-Men ahead. That might have been a bad idea. Although Jay Cutler would say I made the right choice (if he wasn't concussed right now). Keep all that in mind, looking ahead though, because the Falcons look real good.
2) The Saints really don't look that great. Sure they're 3-1, but they barely escaped the 0-4 Niners and the wrath of Jimmy Clausen and the 0-4 Panthers. Didn't look great against a suspect Vikings team either. Oh and congrats to me for drafting Garrett Hartley in both my fantasy league's this year. This marks the second consecutive season my kicker has either been cut or replaced by a 46-year-old. Last year I turned one of the best kickers in the history of the sport into one not worthy of playing for an NFL team. This year, I took a guy who only missed two kicks all of last season, a guy that sent his team to the Super Bowl on a game-winning kick, and turned him into the worst kicker in the NFL. I'm cursed when it comes to fantasy kickers. If you read my fantasy column, you know why.
3) The Cowboys are 1-2, and I'm not mad about it. Analysts still believe they're the Super Bowl favorite. Wade Phillips still can't believe he has a job as a head coach in the NFL. And I believe it's time for Jerry Jones to step down as owner and coach the team. Wouldn't it be fun to see the boss handle all this supposed talent? "Now Dez you see that star on your helmet (in a southern accent)? That means you're a Cowboy. And the Cowboys won football games in the 70s and 90s. You know what that means? It means we can win one playoff game in 13 years and still get analysts to dub us preseason Super Bowl champs. Now you wear that star with pride. And carry my clipboard."
4) Randy Moss is a Viking again. Inteeeerrrressssssstttttinnnnnng. Who should be the really happy about this? Percy Harvin.
5) Really trying not to address the Niners right now.
6) "The NFC West: Where the chance to have a sub-.500 team make the playoffs happens." Now that I've come to terms with the Niners likely not finishing 11-1 this season, I turn my attention to the remarkable NFC West race at hand. The favorite to win the division might be rookie quarterback Sam Bradford, and his 1-15 team of last year, the St. Louis Rams. We also have the
bi-polar Seahawks who route good teams and get routed by bad teams. Then there's the Arizona Cardinals, who, against all odds, are 2-2 right now. Lastly, there's the 49ers. At 0-4, they're still, in many analysts' opinion, the favorite to win the division. Has an 0-4 team ever been the favorite to win the division? Is that one of the craziest things I've ever heard? Yes. But do I think the people that believe this make a strong argument? Yes. Because it's the NFC West people. I'm hoping the Niners take down the division at 6-10, barely edging out the 5-11 Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals. It could seriously happen at this point.

The Quarterly MVP (brought to you byyyyyyyy Top Spot Promotions, because it's the only company supporting this website right now):
Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
Is this guy happy he drafted him in both of his fantasy leagues? You betcha.
Hold on, we haven't had a Michael Silver quote in a while. Let's see if I can find one. Yep, here's one: "When Arian Foster skipped that team meeting last week, was he actually attending a Raiders defensive meeting?"
That's how good he is.
(Honorable Mention: Antonio Gates)

The Quarterly D-Bag (brought to you byyyyyyyy OG Paper, because our contract ended and I'm pretty sure you didn't pay me for the last month of advertising):
Braylon Edwards, WR, New York Jets
See: Driving, Drunk.
(Honorable Mention: Phillip Rivers - How he did not win this award amazes me. All of America watched Rivers curse out teammates and kick footballs on Monday night Week 1, and he still lost this award to Braylon. Everyone knows I think Rivers is the biggest d-bag in the league and I'm the judge of this award and I still picked Braylon. How can you even look at yourself in the mirror at night Braylon?)

Questions on my mind:
Do the Pats realize that although Moss' numbers have been down this year, the double-teams he drew in coverage were what made him the most valuable asset to their offense?

Is Andy Reid going to say he's staying with Michael Vick as his quarterback, announce him as the starter one week, then change his mind and name Kevin Kolb the starter in the same season he said he was staying with Kevin Kolb as his quarterback, announced him as the starter one week, and then changed his mind and made Michael Vick the starter that week? (There's a confusing sentence for ya)

When will people realize Jahvid Best is an overrated fantasy player?
(Aside from one 33 yard run, Best has 49 carries for 141 yards - 2.9 yards per carry. Take out the longest run for all of his contests and look at the numbers: Wk 1: 12 carries, 9 yards; Wk 2: 16 carries, 45 yards; Wk 3: 6 carries, 10 yards; Wk 4: 11 carries, 40 yards.) Nothing to write home about folks.

So do I have any doubts about my preseason predictions thus far? (Let me see: the Niners, Chiefs, Colts?) Nah, I'm still fairly confident everything I predicted is 95% right.

Through one quarter, it could be a lot worse right now. Am I right?

Be sure to check out my picks embedded in the column as always.

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 33-29


Samantha said...

I'd like to hear your thoughts on the Jets/Vikings game. Can Favre still close out games? After every game, at the press conferences, he looks beat to shit. Exhausted. He hit the new record for fumbles in a game. Granted he also reached his 72nd 3TD game, 500th TD pass. But is that just because he's freakin old?

When will Favre be doonnnzzoooo?

BlogLikeMyJobBob said...

Jets/Vikings game showed that Favre still has some of that magic left. But more so, it showed that he might not have enough magic to carry his aging body through the season. Granted it was a cold and rainy night in October for the game, which never bodes well for the body. And the weather is probably partly to blame for the intensified pain Brett felt. But I'm not sure overall how he's gonna hold up this year.

Each week I believe more and more that Brett, shockingly, probably would have retired if his players didn't come to Mississippi and beg him to come back. He just hasn't fully recovered from the beating he took last January and the surgeries that followed thereafter.

The Vikings are loaded with talent. He's got that going for him. And I'm sure Moss rejuvenated him to some degree. However, if his offensive line can't keep him from getting molested each game in the pocket, if the Vikings don't start winning, I could seriously see Brett retiring mid-way through the season. He's also got a potential suspension looming, which could abruptly end his season/career, so we don't know what to expect.

He will add to his record totals (fumbles and interceptions included). But he'll have to fight through a lot of pain to do so. We'll see how much his body can take.